What you need to know about the economy - H2 2025

This article is for general information purposes and not financial advice or recommendation to take any action.

Our economist Warren Hogan delivered an update to Earnr clients and partners on June 19th, covering the key things to know about the Australian economy in the second half of 2025.

You can download the full slide deck from the event here, but below are Warren's key highlights:

• Economic uncertainty remains high - driven by demographic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological change - but leading OECD indicators suggest a near-term recovery is on the horizon for advanced economies.
• Trump’s proposed 10% blanket import tariff has triggered global trade volatility. Australian exporters to non-US markets may benefit from redirected trade and a weaker Aussie dollar.
• China’s growth is losing momentum, while the US is moving towards industrial independence and scaling back its global security spending.
• Markets expect the cash rate to continue to fall in 2025, with a long-term ‘neutral’ rate likely to settle around 3.1% - significantly higher than many Australians have been used to.
• The Australian dollar could act as a buffer to any economic shocks, potentially falling as much as 15–25% if global commodity prices are negatively impacted.
• Australia’s economic resilience will hinge on embracing AI, managing an ageing population, and navigating global uncertainty.

If you would like additional information on any of the views above, book a call with an Earnr Account Specialist here.

‍The information in this article is intended to be factual though may also contain the opinion of the author. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, we take no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Any opinions are those of the author alone and not a recommendation to take any action or obtain any product. You should consider whether this information is appropriate for you and obtain independent advice before making any decisions.